June 5th Updated AL East Projections
Averages Based on Four Statistical Models - Including Fangraphs and Baseball Prospectus
This is the latest in a series of posts, which use four different statistical models that project end of season win-loss records. Last time I posted was on May 23rd, and using models from 538.com, Fangraphs, Baseball Prospectus and Baseball Reference, the average from all showed the Yankees with 100 wins, ahead of the Jays by almost 8 games.
All four models have the Yankees in first, the Red Sox in fourth and the Orioles last. Except for the Baseball Reference model all have the Jays in second, with the Baseball Reference model showing the Rays finishing in second and the Jays in third.
The average of the models has the Yankees projected to win almost 101 games, ahead of the Jays who are projected to win 92.5 games on average. Compared to the last time I posted on this four of the five teams have improved average projections: the biggest increase is for the Orioles (+3.5), followed by the Jays (+2.1), Rays (+1.6) and Yankees (+1.3). The Rays are basically even compared to my last post, and are projected to win an average of 88 games.
The individual models in most instances range about 4 wins from the high to low projections:
Yankees: range in number of wins from 99 (Fangraphs) to 103 (538.com) projected wins
Blue Jays: 90.9 (Baseball Prospectus) to 94 wins (538.com)
Rays: 86.2 (Baseball Prospectus) to 90 (Baseball Reference)
Red Sox: The models show the narrowest variance with the Sox, from 83 (538.com) to 84.6 (Baseball Reference)
Orioles: Range in number of projected wins from 65 (538.com) to 68.8 (Baseball Prospectus)
Note: Due to rounding differences between the June 5 and May 23 averages may vary by 0.1.
Data retrieved at 8:10 am, June 5, 2022.
I’ll update this in a post in another couple of weeks.