May 23rd Updated AL East Projections
Averages Based on Four Statistical Models - Including Fangraphs and Baseball Prospectus
This is my third post, which use four different statistical models that project end of season win-loss records. Last time I posted was on May 7th, and using models from 538.com, Fangraphs, Baseball Prospectus and Baseball Reference, the average from all showed the Yankees with roughly 97 wins, ahead of the Jays by about 5 games.
All four models have the Yankees in first, the Red Sox in fourth and the Orioles last. Except for the Baseball Reference model all have the Jays in second, with the Baseball Reference model showing the Rays finishing in second and the Jays in third.
In the meantime things have changed a bit, with the average showing the Jays projected to finish about 9 games behind the Yankees at the end of the season. The average shows the Jays to finish with about 90 wins, two fewer than the projection on May 7th. All models show the Jays with either 90 or 91 wins, and with the Yankees between 97 and roughly 104 wins.
Looking at the rest of the teams in the division the average show Tampa finishing with 88 wins — with the models ranging from roughly 85 to 91 wins. The average for the Red Sox has them finishing with about 82 wins, up 2 wins from May 7. Three of the models have the Sox winning 83, and Baseball Reference has them a couple lower at just under a .500 record. Lastly, the average has the Orioles at just under 64 wins, about 1 win higher than the May 7 average. Among the models the range is from roughly 61 to 67 wins.
Note: Win numbers retrieved at 10:45 am May 23, 2022. Projections for all models change continually over the course of the season, so numbers will change.