So I know it's early but....
Despite the Jays great start, a potentially concerning sign - scoring about the same number of runs as they're letting up
The Jays currently are off to a great start at 15-8 or a 0.652 winning percentage. Their offense has generally been pretty okay by a lot of metrics compared to other AL teams: 4th best average, 5th best OPS and tied for first in home runs, though they fall to 7th when looking at total runs. It’s really this measure that is kind of concerning, as after Sunday’s game Toronto has only one more run scored than they have allowed.
Normally scoring the same number of runs as a team allows doesn’t translate to a 0.652 winning percentage, and it’s unlikely to be sustainable over the course of the season if things continue like this. Right now the Jays are 9-2 in one run games, which explains a lot as to why they are seven games above .500 this early in the season despite having only scored one more run than they have allowed
If you look at the Jays’ Pythagorean Win-Loss percentage, it would suggest that the Jays should actually have a 12-11 record at this point. A Pythagorean Win-Loss percentage doesn’t always match up exactly with a team’s actual record (one exception would be last year’s Toronto Blue Jays, who had a record of 91-71, though a projected Pythagorean W-L record of 99-63, another would be the 2018 Mariners who had a 89-73 record, though had a Pythagorean W-L% indicating their record should have been more like 77-85), however it’s normally a pretty good barometer. While early in the season the Jays have been able to keep this up, it seems unlikely they will if they continually score about the same number of runs as they let up. One reason is that with a high number of close games we have seen a heavy reliance on Jordan Romano in the 9th inning, getting 11 saves in the Jays first 15 wins. While he has come through in 11 of 12 opportunities, using him in half of their games isn’t likely something that can be sustained.
So am I suggesting the Jays are going to revert to a level closer to .500? No, though to open up a run differential they need to start scoring more runs than their opponents overall. From a pitching perspective it does look like things are trending in the right direction. While the Jays team ERA is 3.68, it has been 3.06 in the last 15 days. Also, offensively if Bichette and Chapman breakout of their slumps soon, and Hernandez returns to form when he comes off the IL the Jays could be scoring more runs.