June 18 Update AL East Projections
Averages Based on Four Statistical Models - Including Fangraphs and Baseball Prospectus
This is the latest in a series of posts, which use four different statistical models that project end of season win-loss records. Last time I posted was on June 5th, and using models from 538.com, Fangraphs, Baseball Prospectus and Baseball Reference, the average from all showed the Yankees with roughly 101 wins, ahead of the Jays by over 8 wins.
All four models have the Yankees in first, the Jays in second and the Orioles in fifth. Both 538 and Fangraphs have the Rays and Sox tied for third, while Baseball Prospectus has the Red Sox a game ahead of the Rays, while Baseball Reference has the Rays slightly ahead of the Red Sox.
This time around the average of the models has the Yankees projected to win almost 104.7 games, ahead of the Jays who are projected to win 91.3 wins on average. Compared to the last time I posted, three teams have had their average win projection improved: the biggest increase is for the Yankees (+3.9), followed by the Orioles (+2.9) and the Red Sox (+2.1). The Jays (-1.3) and Rays (-1.7) have both experienced declines.
The individual models range as follows:
Yankees: range from 102.9 wins (Baseball Prospectus) to 538.com (107 wins)
Blue Jays: 89.1 wins (Baseball Prospectus) to 92 (both 538 and Fangraphs)
Rays: 84.9 wins (Baseball Prospectus) to 88.4 (Baseball Reference)
Red Sox: 85.7 wins (Baseball Prospectus) to 86.8 (Baseball Reference)
Orioles: 68 wins (538) to 72.3 (Baseball Reference)
Note: Due to rounding differences between the June 18 and June 5, averages may vary by 0.1.
Data retrieved at 11:40 am on June 18, 2022.
I’ll update this in a post in another couple of weeks.