August 14th Update - AL East Projections
Well, I haven’t done this in almost two months now, but here is my most recent surveying of averaging four different statistical models to see how they project the Blue Jays and their four division rivals will end the season. Like I have been for the last few posts I’m using FiveThirtyEight.com, Baseball Prospectus, Fan Graphs and Baseball Reference.
Not surprisingly, given that it has been two months a fair bit has changed in the projections. While the Yankees and Blue Jays average number of wins still makes for projections of first and second respectively, each are projected to win 99 (4 wins less than on June 18th) and 88 wins (3 wins less) respectively. The big difference though is of course with Baltimore, who is now projected on average to just barely have a winning percentage above .500, with 82 wins. This compares to an average projection of about 71 wins previously.
The Rays and the Red Sox were both previously projected to have about 86 wins. The Sox are now projected to have 80 wins, and the Rays 84 wins.
AL East Projections
Retrieved August 14, 2022 at 7:25 am. These projections change on a regular basis as the season progresses.
I’ll revisit this at the end of the month, it’ll be interesting to see where things are then.
*Note: In the text above I’m rounding to the nearest whole number, while the table shows detail to one decimal place.